Oil Falls on Middle East Ceasefire Hopes, Easing Supply Fears

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Oil prices sank about 4% on Wednesday after reports the United States had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war in the Middle East, raising prospects of a ceasefire that could ease supply disruptions in the region.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell $4.17, or 4%, to $100.32 a barrel by 0708 GMT, after declining to as low as $97.57. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 futures were down $3.11, or 3.4%, at $89.24 a barrel, after falling to as low as $86.72.

Both benchmarks rose nearly 5% on Tuesday, before paring gains in volatile post-settlement trading.

"Expectations of a ceasefire have risen slightly and profit-taking is leading the market," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities. "But the outlook remains uncertain as to whether negotiations will succeed, limiting selling."

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was making progress in negotiating an end to the war with Iran, while a source confirmed that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point settlement proposal.

Israel's Channel 2 said the U.S. was seeking a month-long ceasefire to discuss the plan, which includes the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program, ceasing support for proxy groups, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Some analysts were sceptical on the progress of such talks, expecting markets to remain volatile.


Oil Shipments via Hormuz Largely Halted


Phillip Nova's senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said Middle East developments would remain the "dominant price driver" keeping oil prices moving in a wide range in the near term.

The war has all but halted shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait, which typically carries about one-fifth of the world's gas and crude supply, causing what the International Energy Agency has called the biggest-ever oil supply disruption.

"The market outlook remains tight notwithstanding the prospects of a war off-ramp," said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

He said that even if flows through the Strait resume, "it's not clear all shut-in production will resume until there is more clarity on the durability of a ceasefire."

Iran has told the United Nations Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that "non-hostile vessels" may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities, according to a note seen by Reuters on Tuesday.

Still, U.S., Israeli and Iranian strikes continued and sources said Washington was preparing to send more troops to the region.

To offset the Hormuz disruptions, oil exports from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Yanbu port rose to nearly 4 million barrels per day last week, a sharp increase from before the war broke out, shipping data shows.

In the U.S., crude, gasoline and distillate stocks rose last week, according to market sources who cited American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks rose by 2.35 million barrels in the week ended March 20, gasoline inventories rose by 528,000 barrels and distillate inventories rose by 1.39 million barrels from a week earlier, the sources said.


(Reuters - Reporting by Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Editing by Jamie Freed and Bernadette Baum)

Categories: Offshore Industry News Activity Europe Asia North America Oil and Gas War Middle East

Related Stories

Oil Holds Steady as Markets Assess Renewed US-Iran Hostilities

Oil Shoots Over $4 as Israel Expands Strikes Against Iran and Lebanon

SBM Offshore to Sell 45% Stake in Mexico-Bound FSO to NYK

Aramco Picks McDermott for Energy Projects in Saudi Arabia

Mitsui Eyes New LNG Investments to Power Data Center Growth

Global Oil Supply to Fall Short of Demand as Iran War Goes On, IEA Says

Oil Jumps 4% After Trump Rejects Iran’s Peace Response

Brent Near $114 as Middle East Conflict Continues

Oil Flows to Lag Even if Hormuz Strait Reopens

IEA Cuts Oil Demand, Supply Outlook Amid Iran War

Current News

JERA Takes Delivery of First LNG Cargo from Australia's Barossa Gas Project

Inpex’s Ichthys LNG Strike Persists as Fair Work Hearing Gets Postponed

Oil Falls More Than 2% as US-Iran Tensions Ease

TGS Books 3D Streamer Seismic Job in Africa and Middle East region

Hormuz Reopening Could Trigger OPEC’s Next Big Challenge

EnQuest to Buy Malaysia Offshore Interests in $833M Deal

Oil Holds Steady as Markets Assess Renewed US-Iran Hostilities

ADNOC Looks to Canada for Upstream and LNG Growth Through XRG

Petronas Signs 20-Year LNG Supply Deal with Japan's JERA

Oil Prices Slide as Israel-Iran Suspend Strikes

Subscribe for AOG Digital E‑News

AOG Digital E-News is the subsea industry's largest circulation and most authoritative ENews Service, delivered to your Email three times per week

https://accounts.newwavemedia.com