China Oil Demand to Peak by 2030

China's oil consumption is expected to keep growing for a decade on robust chemical demand, reaching a peak of about 780 million tonnes per year by 2030, a research institute affiliated with China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) said on Sunday.

Last year, the research group, called the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute (ETRI), said that China's oil demand would peak at 730 million tonnes per year by around 2025.

In its latest report, the ETRI said diesel fuel, gasoline and kerosene consumption are forecast to peak sometime around 2025 at about 390 million tonnes per year. The strong petrochemical demand will support rising consumption through to 2030.

Overall oil demand will fall after 2030 as transportation consumption declines amid the electrification of vehicles while chemical demand remains stable during the period, the ETRI said.

The ETRI also revised the peak of China's total primary energy consumption to 6.01 billion tonnes per year of standard coal by around 2030, from 5.6 billion tonnes per year by around 2035 previously.

"Coal consumption in China would enter a plateau at around 3.6-4 billion tonnes in 2021-2030," the ETRI said, adding that the use of the dirty fossil fuel would decrease steadily in 2031-2050 as coal-fired power plants become a back-up energy source.

This follows plans from the government to reduce coal consumption in China, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, in an "orderly" manner as part of its drive to reach a peak in carbon emissions.

China's top leaders said at an agenda-setting meeting this month that the "gradual withdrawal of traditional energy sources should be based on the establishment of safe and reliable of new energy sources".

The ETRI also forecast the consumption of natural gas, a key bridge fuel during the energy transition and carbon reduction, will peak by 2040 at about 650 billion cubic metres per year, led by consumption from industry and power generators.

(Reporting by Muyu Xu and Tony Munroe; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

Related Stories