North American LNG exports will grow quickly until 2023 then plateau until a second wave of capacity comes online from 2025, McKinsey Energy Insights said in 2019 North American Gas Outlook.
Global LNG supply overcapacity puts pressure on US liquefaction capacity utilization, which has among the highest marginal costs, it said.
Balancing out global LNG overcapacity is equivalent to an average US LNG capacity utilization rate of 70% from 2019-21.
Construction delays primarily at Cameron and Freeport prevent new capacity from coming online until the global LNG market has recovered in ~2021.
Slowdown in North American projects is expected from 2021-24 as new international LNG supply comes online, primarily from Qatar, the report said.
US LNG exports are sensitive to global gas demand, as the marginal supplier to the Europe and Asia, it said.
Post FID plants (LNG Canada, Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass) come online in 20251. From 2028-29, there will likely be room for 2-3 most cost advantaged LNG projects from North America to fill the global LNG supply gap.
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