Oil Caught Between Trump's Russia Supply Push and Middle East Risks

Oil prices oscillated on Monday as the market considered possible further supplies after US President Donald Trump hailed fresh Russian diesel exports against supply-constricting signals after major attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Retracing earlier losses, Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose 69 cents or 0.7%, to $105.41 a barrel by 0923 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $92.42 a barrel, up 57 cents, or 0.6%.

The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh's international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300. Further attacks happened on Sunday.

In addition, more attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz have been reported this month, threatening to dampen a recovery in Middle East crude exports seen in September.

A tanker was struck by a drone in the vicinity of Oman's Sohar, while another was damaged transiting Hormuz, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported.

Goldman Sachs, in a note, raised its Brent price forecast for December to $90 a barrel from $85, estimating a risk premium of just over $20 a barrel.

"We forecast WTI prices, which are unusually low vs Brent because of high US-Europe shipping costs, to average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027," they added.

In the Gulf of Mexico, energy majors Shell SHEL.L, Chevron CVX.N and BP BP.N were seeking to redeploy personnel and restore production at their platforms after Hurricane Isaias made landfall early on Saturday.

More Russian Diesel

ICE gasoil futures LGOc1 fell 4.3% to $1,419.5 per metric ton after President Trump said on Friday that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons (2.25 million barrels) of diesel to US and global markets, with more to come later.

"The immediate impact of the deal is questionable, as Russia’s refining capacity has been severely reduced," PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. "However, Moscow has partially lifted its ban on diesel exports, allowing 500,000 tons (around 3.7 million barrels) to be released onto the international market —equivalent to roughly one day of US consumption and around 13% of global demand."

Trump also unexpectedly announced on Sunday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to an energy ceasefire, but Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still waiting to see details, while Russia did not comment.

The International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol said all members should assess whether additional diesel releases are necessary and that countries which have not yet fully delivered pledged volumes should accelerate releases prioritising diesel.

(Reuters - Additional reporting by Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Muralikumar Anantharaman and Susan Fenton)

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