Rystad Energy expects LNG greenfield investment in 2019 to reach almost $103 billion, which will be the biggest investment year for the burgeoning industry to date.
A total of 33 million tpa of liquefaction capacity and $29 billion of Capex has been sanctioned so far this year, from Golden Pass LNG (US), Cheniere’s Sabine Pass T6 (US) and Anadarko’s Area 1 in Mozambique.
Over 70 million tpa of capacity and $70 billion of Capex is waiting to be sanctioned in the second half of 2019. Venture Global’s 11.2 million tpa Calcasieu Pass project in Louisiana, with Capex of $5.4 billion, has sold close to all of its capacity and has received all necessary approvals to receive a FID.
Sponsored by Total, Tellurian’s Driftwood (phase 1) and Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 are also expected to take FID in 3Q 2019.
With ExxonMobil’s and Eni’s LNG greenfield experience in Africa, it is likely that the development of Mozambique Area 4 and Area 1 will be executed together.
The last project Rystad Energy favors for a 2019 approval is Qatargas’ T8 and T9, which has the lowest breakeven price in the market out of all proposed projects at $5.20 per MMBtu.
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